"It may surprise you to learn that I did not want to write this book. Moreover, I hope the premise and everything I forecast turns out to be dead wrong... The problem is that all the evidence shows I am right." -- Stephen Leeb
I met with Dr. Stephen Leeb, in New York City, whose latest book is titled: The Coming Economic Collapse (2006, Warner Business Books). He's a man of great conviction, whose market insights and predictions have proven to be eerily accurate. This is one interview you won't want to miss... Fasten your seat belts!
In his 1986 book, Getting in on the Ground Floor, Stephen prophesied the great bull market of the 1990s. In his 1999 book, Defying the Market, he warned investors of the coming collapse in technology shares. And in February 2004, when crude oil cost under $33 a barrel, Leeb's book The Oil Factor predicted soaring energy prices were just around the corner.
Now, in The Coming Economic Collapse: How You Can Thrive When Oil Costs $200 a Barrel, Stephen Leeb proves that the U.S. economy is standing on the brink of the biggest crisis in its history. As the fast-growing economies of China and India push global demand for oil beyond production capacity, Americans will experience a permanent energy shortfall far worse than the one in the 1970s. Be sure to select the read more link for resource links.
In a Forbes Magazine interview from January, 2005, Leeb stated:
"At the end of 1999, oil was trading for around $10 a barrel. Since then, it has risen by about 29% per year. Simply extending the trend line means that oil will be at $100 a barrel in about three years and at $160 in five years," Leeb says. If prices rise the way they have in the last year, the resulting levels will be even higher, and that's without any major geopolitical crisis in the Persian Gulf or anywhere else. "It's not a heroic position," Leeb says. "But I don't know how you avoid it."
Backed by meticulous research and analysis, Stephen exposes the psychological "groupthink" that has caused leaders in government, Wall Street, the oil industry, and academia to ignore the approaching crisis, until now when it is almost too late. He debunks the myth that petroleum supplies are limitless, and reveals the truth about an alternative energy source that is fast becoming cheaper than oil.
"The problem we have is that there are 2.3 billion people in Chindia," Leeb says, using shorthand for a combined China and India. "Today, China and India use the energy-equivalent of 5.5 barrels of oil per person per year, while rich nations use 39. No matter how rosy your thinking is as to the global supply of oil, there is no way there is going to be enough to satisfy the demands of an extra 2.3 billion people coming online."
As China and India become rich nations, the demand for oil could grow at 6% per year, compared to 2% recently. Currently, the world has almost no excess supply. The planet is operating at anywhere from 95% to 99% capacity, Stephen says. "There is no margin for error." The only way the system can respond is continued price increases.
About Peter Clayton
Peter Clayton, Producer/Host, is an award-winning producer/director of radio, television, documentary, video, interactive and Web-based media who has created breakthrough media for a wide array of Fortune 100 clients.