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Peter Navarro

Friday, 15 December 2006

The Coming China Wars

Peter Navarro

In his new book, Peter Navarro presents a compelling case for considering the global Chinese juggernaut every bit as important as the war on terror.

China's breakneck industrialization is placing it on a collision course with the entire world. Tomorrow's China Wars will be fought over everything from decent jobs, livable wages, and leading-edge technologies to strategic resources such as oil, copper, and steel...even food, water, and air.

In The Coming China Wars, best-selling author, and UC business professor Peter Navarro previews all these potential conflicts - and reveals the urgent, radical decisions that must be made to avoid catastrophe.

The Coming China Wars is not just a story about how China's emergence as the world's "factory floor" is affecting you and your pocketbook. The story is far larger than any one of us or any single country. With a trade deficit here in the U.S. projected to hit $280,000,000,000 this year, the "War of the Worlds" in this century could come from the world's "pirate nation," not outer space.

32 Min:

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In a December 7th opted piece published in The International Herald Tribune, Navarro writes: "To maintain the dollar-yuan peg, China has been recycling huge sums of U.S. dollars back to America, mainly buying U.S. government bonds and stocks. In effect, then, China has been financing both the budget and trade deficits of the United States. which, under the Bush administration, has shown little fiscal or monetary restraint."

The introduction to "The Coming China Wars" includes a chilling press release dated October 25, 2012; an all-to-real scenario that could happen if we, and the rest of the world, continue "business as usual."

October 25, 2012
U.S.-China Chill Melts Down World Markets
NEW YORK: Global stock exchanges were devastated this week by the worst collapse in history as a wave of panic selling followed the sun from Asia through Europe and back to Wall Street. The pandemonium was triggered by a Chinese government announcement that it would no longer finance the mounting budget and trade deficits of a "profligate United States" that "refuses to live within its means" and that "insists on scapegoating China for its own internal economic problems." Nor would China continue to try to prop up "an increasingly worthless dollar."

As the Chinese began dumping U.S. assets on Wall Street, both stock and bond prices plummeted. The panic soon spread to other exchanges around the world as gold soared to more than $1,000 an ounce and fear of a global depression deepened.

China's actions have been widely interpreted as harsh retaliation for U.S. congressional passage of stiff protectionist tariffs on a wide range of manufactured goods. With the presidential election less than a month away, both houses of Congress up for electoral grabs, and the U.S. economy stuck in reverse, Republicans and Democrats alike are pushing additional legislation addressing everything from the growing trade in Chinese counterfeit goods, illegal drugs, and ballistic missiles to the international spill-over from China's mounting environmental pollution.

It's been a tough year for Sino-U.S. relations. In January, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations stormed out in protest over "the repeated crass commercial use" by China of its U.N. veto to "shield terrorist regimes such as Iran from diplomatic sanctions in exchange for oil." In March, China's president abruptly cancelled a state visit after the U.S. Treasury Department branded China a "currency manipulator." During an unusually hot August that raised collateral fears of global warming, the U.S. Pacific Fleet engaged in a tense, week-long standoff over Taiwan with China's recently acquired, and nuclear missile-equipped, blue water navy.

Meanwhile, domestic unrest in China continues to escalate as an increasingly restive population seeks greater income equality, more worker rights, improved health care, a cleaner environment, a halt to widespread government corruption, and an end to massive public works projects such as the Three Gorges Dam that have displaced millions of people without adequately compensating them. A recent report released by the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency has warned that should such domestic unrest reach a boiling point in China, the result may be "sharper military conflicts with the United States, Taiwan, and possibly even Japan as Chinese leaders seek to unify the now increasingly fractured nation against a 'common enemy.'"

About the Author
Peter Navarro is a business professor at the University of California-Irvine. He is the author of the path-breaking management book, The Well-Timed Strategy, and the bestselling investment book If It's Raining in Brazil, Buy Starbucks. His unique and internationally recognized expertise lies in his "big picture" application of a highly sophisticated but easily accessible macroeconomic analysis of the business environment and financial markets for investors and corporate executives.

Navarro's articles have appeared in a wide range of publications, from Business Week, the Los Angeles Times, New York Times, and Wall Street Journal to the Harvard Business Review, the Sloan Management Review, and the Journal of Business. Professor Navarro is a widely sought after and gifted public speaker. He has appeared frequently on Bloomberg TV and radio, CNN, CNBC, and NPR, as well as on all three major network news shows.

Resources:
Peter's Web Site

The Coming China Wars: Where They Will Be Fought and How They Can Be Won

What the Best MBAs Know

The Well Timed Strategy: Managing the Business Cycle for Competitive Advantage

If It's Raining in Brazil, Buy Starbucks